Pat Donahue, from the Coastal Courier

Forecasters are calling for less activity in the Atlantic basin this hurricane season. But emergency management officials are adamant that it only takes one storm to make it a bad season.

NOAA has released its official outlook on the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, and its forecasters are calling for a total of eight to 14 named storms, with three to six of those turning into hurricanes and one to three of those becoming major hurricanes, those hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or stronger and from categories 3-5.

Colorado State University’s hurricane prediction center is forecasting 13 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two turning into major hurricanes.

An average hurricane season is 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three turning into major hurricanes. Hurricane season starts June 1 and runs to November 30.

“We need to be preparing like this is the year it’s going to happen,” said Curt Barnes, the acting meteorologist in charge at the Charleston, S.C., National Weather Service office, during a briefing with local officials.

The last hurricane to make landfall on the Georgia coast was Hurricane David in 1979. It was a category 1 storm when it hit. But Georgia’s coast has been ravaged by other storms that did not make landfall along that 100-mile stretch, such as Hurricane Matthew in 2016 and Helene and Debbie in 2024.

David came ashore at low tide, and the prospect of a storm coming ashore at high tide could mean a much larger and much more dangerous storm surge, Barnes said.

“We don’t want to scare anyone, but we need to be aware of the risks,” he said.

The most destructive storm to hit Georgia came in 1893, when a hurricane hit Sea Island and claimed up to 2,000 lives.

Predicting and tracking hurricanes has become a much better science over the years, Barnes said.

“We’re not going to be caught by surprise,” he said.

The National Hurricane Center’s website, nhc.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov, is a great resource for tracking storms and hurricane preparedness, Barnes said.

The El Niño effect will be a talking point during the hurricane season, Barnes added. El Niño is expected to arrive in late July and according to the National Weather Service, El Niño conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.

Though sea surface temperatures are expected to be above normal, the wind shear from El Niño is expected to disrupt some storms from forming. Barnes also said he’s more interested in what any dust clouds blowing westward from the Sahara Desert mean. Those large dust clouds mean there is more dry air in the atmosphere.

“That essentially shuts off hurricane formation,” he said.

Barnes said it was supposed to be a quiet hurricane season in 1992, and that’s when Hurricane Andrew devastated Miami and south Florida.

“It only takes one storm for it to be an active season,” he said.